Predictive Slip Detection

Tickr scores tasks by risk of missing their deadline and alerts you proactively. Max plan only.

ℹ️ Max plan only

Predictive slip detection is available on the Max plan and during the free trial. On the Pro plan, /tickr atrisk returns an upgrade prompt and proactive DM alerts are skipped.

Tickr analyzes every active task with a due date and computes a slip risk score (0-100) predicting how likely it is to miss its deadline. Tasks are classified into three risk levels, and you're alerted proactively before things blow up.

How risk scores work

Tickr evaluates six signals for each task:

Signal	Weight	What it measures
Time pressure	30%	How much of the time window (creation to due date) has elapsed
Activity gap	25%	Silence relative to urgency — idle hours vs. remaining hours
Progress deficit	20%	Expected progress (based on time elapsed) minus actual (subtasks, milestones, time logged, updates)
Update quality	10%	Ratio of poor-quality updates in the last 7 days
Blocking factor	10%	BLOCKED status scores high; OPEN past 48h without moving to IN_PROGRESS also flags
Historical deviation	5%	Update frequency compared to completed tasks in the same channel

The composite score is adjusted by task priority — critical tasks score 1.3x, high 1.15x, medium 1.0x, low 0.85x.

Risk levels

Score	Level	Emoji
0-39	On Track	:large_green_circle:
40-69	At Risk	:warning:
70-100	Likely to Slip	:rotating_light:

Proactive DM alerts

Every weekday at 9:30 AM (local time, 30 minutes before the nudge cycle), Tickr scores all active tasks with due dates. If any task scores 40 or above, the assignee receives a private DM:

Slip Alert — These tasks in #project-alpha may miss their deadline:

  *Deploy auth service* — 85/100 (LIKELY TO SLIP)
    90% time elapsed, no activity in 3d, 0/4 subtasks done — due Feb 22

  *Write API docs* — 52/100 (AT RISK)
    Update velocity below channel average — due Feb 25

Alert dedup: Tickr only sends DMs on risk tier transitions — when a task moves from on_track to at_risk, or from at_risk to likely_slip. If a task stays at the same risk level, no repeat alerts.

On-demand risk report

/tickr atrisk

Show all tasks at risk of missing their deadline in this channel.

@Tickr what's at risk?

@Tickr which tasks might slip?

The report groups tasks by risk level (likely to slip, at risk, on track) with scores and diagnostic details. Only active tasks with due dates are scored.

Historical baseline

Tickr builds a per-channel baseline from completed tasks — average completion ratio, update frequency, time to first update, and late task percentage. Channels with more completed tasks get more accurate predictions.

💡 The data moat

The historical baseline requires at least 5 completed tasks (with estimates and due dates) to activate. The more tasks your team completes, the smarter slip predictions become.

Weekly digest integration

The Weekly AI Digest includes an "At Risk" section showing tasks scoring 40 or above, so you see slip risks alongside your regular task summary every Monday morning.